Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-02 3.734379 4.487215 5.328051 6.333153 7.498088 8.801826 10.367203
2025-03-09 2.632851 3.582148 4.755679 6.298063 8.255023 10.637033 13.735280
2025-03-16 1.974454 2.991745 4.362887 6.312401 8.973275 12.433415 17.219878
2025-03-23 1.526114 2.547050 4.032360 6.292529 9.573576 14.080048 20.634038
2025-03-30 1.148553 2.103472 3.596967 6.017234 9.733246 15.092774 23.238678
2025-04-06 0.928356 1.848595 3.383399 6.010891 10.243494 16.605055 26.635507
2025-04-13 0.753351 1.626005 3.173128 5.961004 10.654727 17.978308 29.912389
2025-04-20 0.672122 1.553791 3.199374 6.293383 11.694061 20.379470 34.911038
2025-04-27 0.588655 1.456963 3.161629 6.501521 12.536588 22.524642 39.655471
2025-05-04 0.530413 1.398317 3.182782 6.811486 13.574047 25.053633 45.176119
2025-05-11 0.447404 1.265149 3.034073 6.779263 13.994031 26.576096 49.144038
2025-05-18 0.360723 1.100751 2.791187 6.526295 13.975333 27.334072 51.868230
2025-05-25 0.284568 0.943071 2.537486 6.222516 13.841576 27.904473 54.363829
2025-06-01 0.241326 0.860118 2.436227 6.222239 14.293159 29.554926 58.854814
2025-06-08 0.206494 0.790567 2.353262 6.248565 14.797046 31.334337 63.687572
2025-06-15 0.175218 0.721755 2.258497 6.233135 15.209348 32.966002 68.348740
2025-06-22 0.138882 0.623509 2.066993 5.961541 15.047058 33.476151 70.959366
2025-06-29 0.118362 0.572056 1.990784 5.955758 15.456637 35.127728 75.809867
2025-07-06 0.099728 0.520331 1.902758 5.906445 15.761084 36.585473 80.369476
2025-07-13 0.093954 0.517430 1.958549 6.236268 16.960950 39.941377 88.802506
2025-07-20 0.085499 0.500327 1.967624 6.442800 17.890691 42.795080 96.393679
2025-07-27 0.080069 0.494619 2.011810 6.750361 19.086082 46.275891 105.408772
2025-08-03 0.068402 0.455168 1.937739 6.718391 19.458003 48.030908 111.037828